Moreover, they have a 51% chance of a M≥7 (threshold to be considered a "major" quake), a 20% chance of a M≥7.5 and a 4% chance of a M≥8 (a "great" quake) when all the mapped faults in the region are taken in to account.[18]. Creep effects may be seen also in older structures crossing the fault, some of which have been fitted with expansion joints to accommodate this slow motion. While the San Andreas Fault is the principal transform boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault takes up its share of the overall displacement of the two plates. Nonetheless, Bay area cities and counties have long expected a major earthquake and as a result all building in the past 30 years has been required to adhere to strict guidelines regarding earthquake resistance. Seismic Imaging of a Bimaterial Interface Along the Hayward Fault, CA, with Fault Zone Head Waves and Direct P Arrivals A. A severe earthquake is more likely to disable the offshore causeway portions of Interstate Highway 80 (the Eastshore Freeway), since it is built on fill placed in the 1930s atop mudflats whose upper layers were deposited in the 19th century as a result of extensive hydraulic gold mining in the distant Sierra Nevada mountain foothills. [18] This is compared to 6.4 percent for the San Andreas Fault, which can have larger earthquakes but is farther away from a significant portion of the urbanized parts of the Bay Area. To start the tour, download and open the “Hayward Fault Map and Tour” file in Google Earth (free download), then click the “Play Tour” button located at the bottom of the “Places” panel. There is the possibility that a large earthquake could trigger very large earth flows, particularly if the soils are seasonally saturated with water, possibly rendering extensive areas unbuildable. Due to the extensive use of point of sale scanners and registers in supermarkets this could also impact the ability of stores to sell essential items such as groceries and to preserve frozen food items, as well as terminating cable TV and most internet access. Fremont Earthquake Exhibit: The Hayward Fault Exposed, This geotourism exhibit (April through October 2006, now closed) featured a 12- to 15-foot (5 m) deep pit exposing the Hayward Fault, which could be viewed "face to face" from a shaded platform by descending a staircase. At the lower elevations near the bay the soil is mostly water saturated mud and sand, placed in the early 20th century as fill in marsh areas. Dismantling of high pressure and temperature process units and the consequent fire danger to personnel and equipment could produce substantial economic consequences for the western states. The 1868 Hayward earthquake occurred in the San Francisco Bay Area, California, United States on October 21. Estimated moment magnitude of 6.3–6.7 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of IX , it was the most recent large earthquake to occur on the Hayward Fault Zone. This region is also covered with dense low-rise urban development, most of which was built soon after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and long before even moderately earthquake resistant construction practices had been developed in the late 1920s. The Hayward Fault Zone is located in northern California in the San Francisco Bay Area. A release on a major segment can substantially increase the likelihood of an earthquake on an adjacent fault segment, increasing the likelihood of two major regional earthquakes within a period of a few months. Depending upon seasonal weather conditions at the time of a major event a seismic event could be followed by urban wildfires compounded by damage to water systems or massive landslides in saturated soils. Parallel to the Eastshore Freeway and inland only two blocks is a four-track railroad route used for general freight traffic, including that generated by the Port of Oakland (Union Pacific and BNSF railroads) and by Amtrak passenger traffic to the Pacific Northwest and eastward through Reno and Salt Lake City. Numerous chemical, radiological, and biohazardous materials are present (in relatively small quantities) on campus and on the associated Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in the hills above the university. Large liquid storage tanks are protected by berms that are designed to contain the contents should a tank fail under normal conditions. Hayward: Alarm bells have rung in recent years about the Hayward Fault zone, which stretches over 66 miles from San Pablo Bay down to Fremont, running directly beneath parts of … As with portions of other faults, a large extent of the Hayward Fault trace is formed from a narrow complex zone of deformation which can span hundreds of feet in width. The transform boundary defined by the San Andreas Fault is not perfectly straight, and the stresses between the Pacific and North American Plates are diffused over a wide region of the West, extending as far as the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The current estimates of the probability of a major earthquake on any of the numerous regional faults range up to 70 percent within the thirty-year period 2000–2029. In addition to extensive modifications to over crossings and elevated structures, largely to prevent dismantling due to shaking or destruction by soil failure, several other unique system feature require special treatment. This in turn can make fuel supplies for vehicles and emergency generators unavailable locally and impact both domestic water, industrial water, sewage plants, and drainage pumping. The mapped traces represent the integration of the following three different types of data: (1) geomorphic expression, (2) creep (aseismic fault slip),and (3) trench exposures. The fault is slowly moving, resulting in offset of structures like this curb. Subsequent seismic analysis indicated the possibility that the overfill could fail due to agitation, allowing the buoyant tube to float upward, misaligning the tracks and possibly overstressing the bolted connections. A replacement of the eastern span was completed in August 2013. This fault is about 74 mi (119 km) long, situated mainly along the western base of the hills on the east side of San Francisco Bay. For more information, please call Planning at 510.583.4200 or visit our webpage: and that much life-safety protective work remains to be done. Combined Rodgers Creek and northern Hayward fault slip, magnitude 7.1, Northern Hayward fault slip, magnitude 6.5 *, Southern Hayward fault slip, magnitude 6.7 *. Similar process and product conditions exist at other refineries further inland near Martinez, but mostly these plants are exposed to earthquakes from other faults. The north and south ends are formed of new bridging sections that rest upon floating mats (foundations that do not penetrate the surface, rather sitting upon plastic sheets over level graded gravel and sand) where they pass over and near the fault, with appropriate sliding connections between the sections for the safety of spectators and the ability to absorb the relative rotation between the east and west fixed sections and the new north and south mobile sections. Chevron also has a petroleum products pipeline that crosses the fault. Highways 80 and 880 and the Port of Oakland. Its last major earthquake occurred on October 21st, 1868, destroying downtown Hayward, killing 5 people and, injuring 30. This fault is about 74 mi (119 km) long, situated mainly along the western base of the hills on the east side of San Francisco Bay. [2], North of San Pablo Bay is the Rodgers Creek Fault, which was shown in 2016 to be linked with the Hayward Fault under San Pablo Bay to form a combined Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault that is 118 miles (190 km) long, stretching from north of Healdsburg through Santa Rosa down to Alum Rock in San Jose. Severe effects were seen in both Oakland and northern San Francisco from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, even though this event was not extremely large and was centered a significant distance away in the Santa Cruz Mountains. The Hayward is one of three major fault zones of the San Andreas system that have produced large historic earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area (the others being the San Andreas and Calaveras). Motion over millions of years has brought different sets of rocks next to each other on the fault trace. More than 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars in property exists in the affected area, and more than 165 billion US dollars in damage would likely result if the 1868 earthquake were to reoccur. Prior to the adoption and implementation of a $200 million seismic improvement project all of the water for these customers went through one vulnerable tunnel that crosses the Hayward Fault near the Caldecott Tunnel. This potential problem has been addressed by vibratory compaction of the overfill covering the tube. The magnitude of an earthquake, as indicated on a seismic scale, is roughly proportional to the length of the rupture, while the ground motion in the region surrounding the fault is highly dependent upon the local soil conditions, somewhat upon the distance and relationship to the progression of the fault rupture, and (as recently recognized in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake) reflected energy from deep discontinuities in the Earth's structure. Traces of the Hayward Fault, California The purpose of this map is to show the location of and evidence for recent movement on active fault traces within the Hayward Fault Zone, California. We’ve updated this video: https://youtu.be/GhFMtCmHc9cOctober 21st will mark the 141st Anniversary of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake. Creep damage to asphalt road surfaces will usually appear as a series of echelon cracks. Additionally, EBMUD created a second route to bring water to these west-of-the-hills customers through the Southern Loop Bypass near Castro Valley. This soft mud is expected to amplify earthquake shaking, and the mud supporting the heavy fill may liquefy, and so possibly cause major disruption of the highway due to failure by sinking of the highway and by differential movement of large sections. In June 2006 Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) management announced that they have elected not to modify the Berkeley Hills Tunnel, which actually penetrates the Hayward Fault, arguing that it would be cheaper (and less disruptive to current operations) to rebore a misaligned portion after the fact than to protect riders (either by extensive modifications of the tunnel or by replacing it with a higher bore) against the small likelihood that a train (or two) would crash into or be cut in two by a major slippage of the fault. A recent study found such an event would cause an estimated 800 deaths, 18,000 injuries and billions in damage. It is expected that these segments may fail singly or in adjacent pairs, creating earthquakes of varying magnitude. The San Andreas Fault and 6 other Bay Area fault zones are on both sides of the bay: San Gregorio fault zone, Hayward fault zone, Franklin fault, Green Valley fault zone, Moraga fault, San Jose fault and Monte Vista-Shannon fault zone. Significant features were noted and marked. It was long believed that there was no connection between the Hayward Fault and the Calaveras, but geological studies[10] (particularly the examination of very small and deep earthquakes) suggest that the two may be connected. The Hayward Fault is one of the secondary faults in this diffuse zone, along with the Calaveras Fault to the east and the San Gregorio Fault, west of the San Andreas. It also appears likely that this quiet period in the earthquake shadow is ending, as projected by the rate of plate motion and the stress state of other faults in the region. [15] Although its magnitude was less than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, the intensity of shaking experienced in the Hayward area may have been greater than in 1906 due to the proximity of the Hayward Fault. Of primary concern with respect to the Hayward Fault is the huge Chevron Richmond Refinery in Richmond. Most of the severe effects of that event were due to poorly responding soil conditions and design deficiencies in large structures. The Hayward Fault could unleash a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, capable of catastrophic damage. "Startling quake threat discovery", David Perlman, Contra Costa Times article, February 6, 2007, page 1, Learn how and when to remove this template message, Eastern span replacement of the San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge, "Major quake on Hayward fault more likely, scientists say", "Missing link between the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults", "North-of-the-Delta Offstream Storage Investigation (draft)", Paleoseismic Investigation Of The Maacama Fault At The Haehl Creek Site, Willits, California, "New data on 2 Bay Area faults cause worry about next big quake", David Perlman, December 31, 2015, updated January 2, 2016 10:31am, "Two Bay Area earthquake faults found to be connected", Patrick May, October 20, 2016, updated January 12, 2017 6:40am, "The Rodgers Creek and Hayward Faults are revealed to be one fault, capable of a Magnitude=7.4 earthquake", Hayward, Calaveras faults may be connected, geologist says, "Earthquake in San Francisco and Neighboring Places — Nearly a Million Dollars Worth of Property Destroyed", "California's Last Big Earthquake — How the People of Oakland Feared for San Francisco", Museum of Local History, Links to the 1868 Earthquake. Around Tule Ponds at Tyson Lagoon the fault splits into two traces and continues in a downwarped area Some of the cities in the eastern bay shore and south bay region near this fault include Richmond, El Cerrito, Berkeley, Albany, Emeryville, Kensington, Oakland, Piedmont, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, Castro Valley, Hayward, Union City, Fremont, Newark, Milpitas, Niles, and portions of San Jose. Service Contacts: Tech Support (gis@hayward-ca.gov) 510.583.4851; Owner Mailing Address Correction Form; Other Address Corrections (gis@hayward-ca.gov) Land Use and Zoning (PlanningDivision@hayward-ca.gov) 510.583.4200; All other data questions and corrections. Some geologists have suggested that the Southern Calaveras should be renamed as the Southern Hayward. (See the Virtual tour – Google Earth Flyover below.). [23] As seen in other worldwide pipeline ruptures, even an instantaneous stop of pumping would take several minutes to significantly lower pipeline pressure after a break, and would likely result in the release of significant amounts of flammable liquid fuels. [19] (Earthquake insurance is not only quite expensive, it tends to be burdened with large deductibles – at least 15 percent). Official state Earthquake Fault Zone maps. Technically, the Hayward Fault is itself part of the vast San Andreas Fault Zone which, according to current theory, actually extends across the western US and even out to sea some distance. The 1868 earthquake occurred well before the East Bay region was extensively urbanized. In this rift valley there are a number of elevated street crossings in the Montclair District that cross the fault. 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